| |
HOME
NEWS
LIVE ODDS
SITEMAP
LINKS
CALENDAR
|
Nascar Sprint Odds
February 24th Auto Racing news ... Nascar Sprint Odds at nascarsprintodds.com
NASCAR: Pennsylvania 500 (1:18 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-30
NASCAR continues its march towards the Chase when it travels to Pocono Raceway again on Sunday for the Pennsylvania 500. This will be the second time in two months that the Cup Series will have visited Pocono, following Denny Hamlin’s win in the June race. Hamlin just happens to be the defending champion of this race too, and accomplished the season sweep at this track in the 2006 season. Is it any wonder why he is the race favorite for Sunday at 4-1 odds according to ?
The rest of the favorites board includes Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch, at 6-1, plus Jeff Gordon, at 9-1. Of the three, none really commands any respect due to recent performance at this venue. Busch‘s career is actually littered with struggles at Pocono, as he owns just three Top 10 finishes in 11 prior starts. One of those came in June though, in his runner-up finish. Johnson has two career Pocono wins, but none since ’04. Gordon is tied with Hamlin at the top of the active career wins board, with four. However, since the advent of the COT, he has just a single Top 5 and average finish of 13.6 in five starts.
Hamlin truly is the man to beat this week, as he had led 179 of 404 laps in the last two races here and has been in the Top 15 in 403 of those, or 99.8%! He is the career average finish leader at 8.6 and owns seven Top 10 finishes in his nine starts. Oddsmakers might want to adjust their second tier favorites though, as several other drivers figure to have a better shot to win than Johnson, Gordon, or Busch. Instead you might want to consider Carl Edwards (20-1), Tony Stewart (10-1), Kasey Kahne (20-1), Juan Montoya (20-1), or Clint Bowyer (12-1). Edwards is second to Hamlin in laps led in the COT at 158, and has a win and average finish of 8.4 in those five starts. Stewart, like Hamlin, has three Top 5’s in those races, including a 3rd place finish in June. Kahne has a ’08 win and 145 laps led in the COT to his credit, while Bowyer is among the other drivers who seems to run out front at this track, evidenced by his 82 laps led. Finally, there is Montoya…victim of what seems to be the worst luck of any driver on these 2.5-mile flat superspeedway’s. He finished eighth here in June but has two DNF’s in the COT to go along with consecutive DNF’s at Indy.
A series sweep at Pocono is not uncommon, as the only real difference between this race and the June one figures to be that the track has heated up over the course of the summer. In addition, the schedule of recent years has this race always the week after the Brickyard 400, meaning a second consecutive race on a 2.5-mile flat track. While Indianapolis Motor Speedway's rectangular shape is significantly different than the Pocono triangle, many of the same skills are required to go fast on both. Drivers who ran well last week also should dominate the front of the pack this week. Of course, there always is the uncertain intangible of luck. Jamie McMurray (25-1) was the beneficiary of the luck last week, as he won the Brickyard 400 only after Montoya, who dominated most of the race, hit the wall late in a desperate attempt to get back out front after a miscalculated pit road choice.
Of the potential dark horses to consider, or those drivers who don’t boast the best Pocono stats, Kevin Harvick (10-1) finished fourth in the first Pocono race and enters the weekend with top-fives in his past two flat-track races and there is every indication he will add another at Pocono. Sam Hornish Jr. (25-1) is a bigger longshot but last year, he swept the top 10 in both races there and narrowly missed adding a third such finish with an 11th earlier this year. Dollar for dollar, he might be the best value in the game this week. Jamie McMurray is developing a reputation for stepping up for the big races after winning this year's Daytona 500, finishing second in the Coke 600, and winning last week's Brickyard 400. It remains to be seen if he can level out his results and also run strong on smaller stages, but considering that he earned a fifth at Chicagoland two weeks ago, he's well worth the risk. So far it's been difficult for McMurray to string together good results. This week, he enters Pocono with consecutive top-fives for the first time all season. Greg Biffle (20-1) is also noteworthy in that he had a strong third place run at Indy and may be readying himself for a late charge to ensure a Chase spot.
Other drivers you may want to avoid include Joey Logano (35-1), Kurt Busch (20-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (35-1), and Mark Martin (25-1). Of the four, there is just a single Top 5 finish, belonging to Junior, in the five races run in the COT.
The action gets started with qualifying at 3:40 pm ET on Friday. Denny Hamlin started 4th in the June victory, and runner-up Kyle Busch started 2nd. In short, qualifying is very important here. In fact, of the last 16 races, six winners have started on the pole and six others were in the first three rows. Practice is also highly important, as the last nine Pocono winners have averaged a 5.0 Happy Hour rank with only one finishing worse than 6th in the session. Sunday’s race comes around at 1:18 pm ET.
Brickyard 400 (1:15 PM ET, ESPN)
2021-07-24
Seven races remain until the NASCAR Cup Series reaches the Chase, or the postseason if you will. After enjoying the last weekend off, the drivers get back to work at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where they’ve been coming once annually for the Brickyard 400 ever since ’94. There has been just a short list of dominant drivers here historically, with Jeff Gordon and Dale Jarrett sharing honors in the early years and since passing the torch on to Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. In fact, those latter two have won the last five races at Indy and for good reason are listed as the favorites for Sunday according to .
With just seven races remaining to qualify for the Chase, this race takes on significance, perhaps even more than usual, since Indianapolis’ sister track, Pocono Raceway, also is on the upcoming schedule. Drivers that fare well at this 2-1/2 mile flat superspeedway typically do well at Pocono, which has similar features. That said, a victory this week is a much-coveted one, both for the pageantry of the host venue, the Brickyard, as well as the prize money disbursed to the winner. As is usually the case, the stars tend shine brightest on the biggest stage, as the last seven winners of this race are mega-stars. Jimmie Johnson & Tony Stewart have won the last five Brickyard 400’s, with Johnson being the defending two-time champion. Jeff Gordon won the 2004 event and Kevin Harvick reached Victory Lane in 2003. Of course, those latter two are currently the 2010 standings.It’s interesting to note that Johnson, winner of three of the last four races here, went on to his first of four straight series titles after taking home his first Checkered Flag from Indy. In fact, that feat has happened now eight times in 16 years, further signifying the importance of winning the Brickyard 400.
Most experts believe that there is only a slight difference between the car setups used at Indianapolis to those at Pocono. Keep that in mind when handicapping, since coincidentally, another trip to Pocono follows this week’s event. The top three in the June race at Pocono were Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Tony Stewart. Looking at the results at the two tracks combined in the COT (since ’08), you’ll find Jimmie Johnson atop the heap in almost every key statistical category. In seven total races, he leads in Poles (2), Wins (2), Average Finish (5.1), Top 5’s (4), Top 10’s (6), and Laps Led (241). It’s no wonder that oddsmakers have established him as the 7-2 favorite. Stewart is next at 7-1, and he boasts four Top 5’s as well in that 7-race stretch, along with an average finish of 11.0. Denny Hamlin is listed at 8-1, with 222 laps led and four Top 5’s. However, his success has come mostly at Pocono, with his average finish at Indy in four career starts just 17.3.
Beyond the three favorites in terms of stats and odds, you’ll find a handful of other drivers capable of competing for the win on Sunday. Jeff Gordon, at 8-1 heads that list. He has a remarkable 10 Top 5’s in 2010, though he’s yet to reach Victory Lane. Having spent time in his childhood in Indiana, many consider this Gordon’s home track, and he could break the winless drought on Sunday. It would be his career-leading 5th Indy win. Kyle Busch also shares 8-1 odds, although he has not won in five Inday starts, and has averaged just a 24.6 finish in the seven flat superspeedway races in the COT. Juan Montoya (12-1), Kevin Harvick (12-1), Jeff Burton (14-1), Carl Edwards (20-1) and Kasey Kahne (20-1)will wrap up my own personal short list of contenders for the weekend. Typically, a driver has to be either running very well at the time, or have a rich history at Indy to win the Brickyard 400. All five meet one or both of that criteria. Of the group, Kahne & Edwards are the only winners at a track like this in the last seven COT races, though Montoya has threatened to win and seems to love coming back to the Brickyard, a track he ran while in open wheel racing. The Childress guys, Harvick and Burton, are running very well over the last month.
Among the drivers you may want to avoid this week, at least in terms of the numbers, are Kurt Busch (12-1), Matt Kenseth (25-1), Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1), Martin Truex (35-1), and Jamie McMurray (35-1).Busch has surprisingly bad numbers at Pocono and Indy in the COT, with an average finish of 23.6 and two DNF’s. Kenseth is struggling to put things together during his break-in period with his new crew chief, and has averaged just 15.7 in the past seven flat superspeedway races. Junior, Truex, and McMurray are longshots as the odds suggest, and have combined for only three Top 10 finishes and 17 laps led in 21 starts.
This week’s qualifying for the Brickyard 400 begins Saturday at 10:10 AM ET, with the race green flag scheduled for Sunday at 1:19 PM ET. With track position being critical, the qualifying usually plays a huge factor, with eight of the previous 16 winners starting in the top 5. Jimmie Johnson started 16th a year ago and won. No winner has ever come from worse than the 27th starting spot. Johnson has also finished 3rd in ’09, and 1st in ’08 in Happy Hour, so if he demonstrates similar speed this weekend in practice, look out.
NASCAR: Lifelock.com 400 (7:30 PM ET, TNT)
2021-07-09
The NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit opens up the second half of the season at Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Il. Saturday’s Lifelock.com 400, will be the 10th annual race at the 1.5 mile tri-oval, and so far, only two drivers have reached Victory Lane more than once, current series leader Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart, with two wins each. Strangely, despite that and the fact that both are in the top four among active drivers in Top 5’s & Top 10’s at this track, you won’t find either listed among the race favorites. In fact, according to , at least five drivers are listed better than Harvick at 12-1, and Stewart at 20-1. Can they pull the upset?
Kevin Harvick takes a huge point lead into the season’s second half, 212-points over Jeff Gordon and 225-points over Jimmie Johnson. Kurt Busch (-245), Denny Hamlin (-284), and Kyle Busch (-308) round out the Top 6. Of those, only Gordon has yet to win a race this season, as the others have all accomplished that feat at least twice, led by Johnson and Hamlin at five apiece. The odds for this week’s Lifelock.com 400 are highly reflective of the standings, as the Top 6 are the favored six for the race. Johnson is the official favorite, at 7-2 odds, despite the fact that he has never won in Chicago in eight starts. Hamlin is next at 6-1 but has a far from rich history here. Kyle Busch is 7-1, and won this race two years ago. Gordon is 8-1, and won here is 2006, although that was when they ran on Sunday afternoon. Kurt Busch is 10-1, and Harvick is 12-1.
Kevin Harvick comes off the huge win at Daytona in which he alternated between helping teammate and frontrunner for most of the 166 laps. Kasey Kahne (15-1) came in second, followed up by Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton (12-1) and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (30-1). There were several huge multi-car wreck incidents as well that collected among others Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Juan Montoya, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray. Of those, Newman, Logano, and McMurray took the biggest hit in the standings, as each remains on the outside of the Chase looking in right now. Earnhardt, Jr. was the biggest beneficiary, climbing up into the Top 12 in 11th, seven points ahead of Carl Edwards, and 46-points in front of Mark Martin.
Last year’s race here set a record for fewest cautions and was thoroughly dominated by Mark Martin, who led 195 of the 267 laps and spent every single lap in the Top 15. That win was one of several Martin had by this time a year ago, but unfortunately, he seems so far removed from even contending for a win in 2010. Oddsmakers have taken notice, listing him at 25-1. As mentioned earlier, the race at Chicagoland used to be held on Sunday afternoon. Consistently brutal weather conditions forced a move by NASCAR prior to the 2008 race though, as it seemed as if race day always fell on the hottest day of the year. I should know, since I actually attended this race in 2006 in near 100-degree temperatures. When the races were run in the afternoon there was typically a lot of attrition, due to both wrecks and motors going. Heat, drivers, and engines just don’t seem to mix well. Thus, if you’re really getting down to statistics when handicapping this week’s race, you may want to consider just looking at the last two years’ events. Those were both at night, and both in the COT.
The stats show Tony Stewart leading the way in average finish in the last two visits to Chicagoland, at 4.5. he has 4th & 5th place finishes to his credit, adding to five other Top 5’s he had beforehand at this venue. That leads the career list. Interestingly, Stewart, for his overall success, has only led 12 laps in the two races here of ’08 & ’09. The drivers most frequently at the front have been Mark Martin (195 – all in ’09 win) and Kyle Busch (165 – all in ’08 win). Jimmie Johnson is next among non-winners with 73 laps led while Greg Biffle has paced 43 laps. Johnson has also averaged a 5th place finish in the last two events with Jeff Gordon third in that category at 6.5. The drivers that have really struggled here the last two years have been Jeff Burton (28.0 avg. fin.), Carl Edwards (23.0), Kurt Busch (22.5), and Denny Hamlin (22.5). For Hamlin, the last two years have continued a trend that finds him averaging just a 19th place finish in four career Joliet starts.
Overall, as you handicap this race, take a look at the recent action at the so called “cookie cutter” tracks, the 1-1/2 mile ovals like Texas, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Lowe’s, particularly those at Lowe’s where the action is also under the lights. Incidentally, Kurt Busch won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte in May. Neither qualifying nor practice speeds have amounted to much when it comes to indicators of success here, with only one of the nine previous winners starting in the Top 5 (average 14.9) and only one of the last five practicing better than 12th (17.8). The green flag for the Lifelock.com 400 is set to drop on Saturday night at 7:46 PM ET on TNT again.
|
|
|